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Does Stewart’s ‘Common Sense’ approach really make money?

WSJ: How to Time The Market by James B. Stewart. Interesting read, but does it really work?

Here is how the system works: When the market is dropping, I buy stocks at intervals of 10% declines from the most recent peak. When it is rising, I sell at intervals of 25% gains from the most recent low.

Several comments with the column doubt how well the strategy works. He has advocated it before and others have also reviewed the strategy in the past.

CXO Advisory: Analysis of James Stewart’s “Common Sense” Stock Market Timing Strategy

In summary, the Common Sense buy-low/sell-high strategy appears not to be an effective asset allocation approach because it is somewhat out of phase with momentum and value return horizons.

Stwart’s Common Sense column also appears in Smart Money.

Regardless, it is a good weekend read.

Two tools I used — Vox and Bloglines headed for the dead pool

bloglines logoBloglines announced today that they are closing Oct. 1. I’ve used them since 2004, and while it’s trailed Google Reader for several years, it’s remained my favorite. Also I still have some marked items since 2004, I haven’t gotten around to reading.

So I’ll switch to Google Reader, but even that’s a twindling market.

From paidcontent.org:

But people no longer seem to be abandoning certain readers for others—or for other ways to access those same feeds. Instead, they appear to be abandoning RSS readers as a way to read the news altogether. Hitwise, for instance, tells us that visits to Google Reader are down 27 percent year-over-year, while visits to Bloglines are down 71 percent year-over-year. comScore (NSDQ: SCOR) figures show that traffic to Bloglines has largely stagnated:

TechCrunch summarized Bloglines’ demise this way:

Bought by IAC’s Ask.com in February 2005 for around $10 million, the site has been in jeopardy ever since the launch of Google Reader long ago, compounded by the shift from RSS  to realtime news streams. Over the past few years, the site hasn’t launched any new or innovative features to boost usage. While we’ve heard in the past that IAC was considering shutting down the site, the company held off on killing the site permanently and was looking for ways to refurbish Bloglines.

vox logoLast week, the blogging service Vox, owned by Six Apart announced it was closing Sept. 30. I’m still preparing for that close. Vox launched at a time when blogging was hot, but people were concerned about privacy. It’s strength was a family-friendly blogging system where posts could be shared either to anyone on the web, to family, or to friends. That concerned seems to have passed, or it’s such a small group that it cannot be success as a business.

Both products launched with lots of promise, but being mildly successful compared with wildly successful means eventually they ended up in the dead pool.